League Cup Shoot Outs

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Sat31March1928
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Re: League Cup Shoot Outs

Post by Sat31March1928 » Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:03 am

Been through and checked my results against teams in next round

Shoot out results are

Sat 03 Sep 1977 Queens Park 1 Ayr United 0 R2 2-4 L
Wed 16 Nov 1977 Heart Of Midlothian 2 Dundee United 0 QF 4-2 W
Sat 02 Sep 1978 Queens Park 4 Raith Rovers 2 R2 3-4 L
Sat 02 Sep 1978 Falkirk 2 Partick Thistle 2 R2 5-4 W
Wed 10 Oct 1979 St Mirren 0 Hamilton Academical 2 R3 2-4 L
Sat 24 Nov 1979 Kilmarnock 3 Morton 2 QF 4-5 L
Wed 24 Sep 1980 Kilmarnock 0 Dundee 0 R3 3-5 L
Wed 08 Sep 1982 Cowdenbeath 1 Kilmarnock 0 PO 3-4 L
Sat 27 Aug 1983 Heart Of Midlothian 1 Cowdenbeath 1 R2 4-2 W
Wed 15 Aug 1984 East Stirlingshire 1 Berwick Rangers 1 R1 4-3 W
Wed 22 Aug 1984 Kilmarnock 1 Alloa Athletic 1 R2 3-2 W
Wed 29 Aug 1984 Dundee 1 Kilmarnock 1 R3 3-2 W
Wed 21 Aug 1985 Stirling Albion 1 Dumbarton 1 R2 4-2 W
Wed 21 Aug 1985 Morton 2 Dunfermline Athletic 2 R2 4-3 W
Tue 27 Aug 1985 Forfar Athletic 2 Rangers 2 R3 5-6 L
Wed 04 Sep 1985 Hibernian 4 Celtic 4 QF 4-3 W
Wed 20 Aug 1986 Albion Rovers 2 Forfar Athletic 2 R2 1-3 L
Wed 27 Aug 1986 East Fife 0 Rangers 0 R3 4-5 L
Wed 03 Sep 1986 Aberdeen 1 Celtic 1 QF 2-4 L
Tue 23 Sep 1986 Motherwell 2 Celtic 2 SF 4-5 L
Wed 19 Aug 1987 Albion Rovers 1 East Fife 1 R2 5-3 W
Sun 25 Oct 1987 Rangers 3 Aberdeen 3 F 5-3 W
Wed 10 Aug 1988 Cowdenbeath 0 Albion Rovers 0 R1 3-4 L
Wed 17 Aug 1988 East Fife 1 Dunfermline Athletic 1 R2 3-4 L
Wed 17 Aug 1988 Falkirk 1 Raith Rovers 1 R2 9-8 W
Wed 09 Aug 1989 East Fife 2 Queens Park 2 R1 6-7 L
Tue 22 Aug 1989 Hibernian 0 Clydebank[4] 0 R3 5-3 W
Wed 30 Aug 1989 Heart Of Midlothian 2 Celtic 2 QF 1-3 L
Tue 14 Aug 1990 Queens Park 3 East Fife 3 R1 5-4 W
Tue 14 Aug 1990 East Stirlingshire 2 Dumbarton 2 R1 4-1 W
Tue 21 Aug 1990 Queen of the South 2 Dundee 2 R2 4-1 W
Wed 22 Aug 1990 Falkirk 1 Partick Thistle 1 R2 1-4 L
Tue 13 Aug 1991 East Fife 2 East Stirlingshire 2 R1 2-4 L
Tue 13 Aug 1991 Alloa Athletic 0 Stranraer 0 R1 8-7 W
Tue 20 Aug 1991 Brechin City 3 St Mirren 3 R2 4-5 L
Wed 28 Aug 1991 Dunfermline Athletic 1 St Mirren 1 R3 3-2 W
Tue 03 Sep 1991 Airdrieonians 0 Celtic 0 QF 4-2 W
Tue 24 Sep 1991 Dunfermline Athletic 1 Airdrieonians 1 SF 3-2 W
Sat 01 Aug 1992 Stranraer 0 East Fife 0 R1 5-4 W
Wed 19 Aug 1992 St Johnstone 2 Partick Thistle 2 R3 4-3 W
Tue 10 Aug 1993 Meadowbank Thistle 1 Dundee 1 R2 1-3 L
Tue 31 Aug 1993 Partick Thistle 2 Hibernian 2 QF 2-3 L
Tue 31 Aug 1993 Dundee United 3 Falkirk 3 QF 4-2 W
Tue 09 Aug 1994 Berwick Rangers 0 Montrose 0 R1 2-3 L
Wed 10 Aug 1994 Arbroath 1 Alloa Athletic 1 R1 5-4 W
Wed 10 Aug 1994 Stranraer 2 Cowdenbeath 2 R1 4-2 W
Tue 16 Aug 1994 Morton 1 Airdrieonians 1 R2 3-5 L
Tue 16 Aug 1994 Falkirk 1 Montrose 1 R2 5-4 W
Wed 31 Aug 1994 Hamilton Academical 2 Dundee United 2 R3 3-5 L
Tue 25 Oct 1994 Raith Rovers 1 Airdrieonians 1 SF 5-4 W
Sun 27 Nov 1994 Raith Rovers 2 Celtic 2 F 6-5 W
Sat 05 Aug 1995 Berwick Rangers 1 Caledonian Thistle 1 R1 5-3 W
Sat 19 Aug 1995 Clydebank[4] 1 Motherwell 1 R2 1-4 L
Sat 19 Aug 1995 St Johnstone 1 Livingston 1 R2 2-4 L
Wed 20 Sep 1995 Dundee 4 Heart Of Midlothian 4 QF 5-4 W
Wed 20 Sep 1995 Airdrieonians 1 Partick Thistle 1 QF 3-2 W
Tue 13 Aug 1996 Morton 1 Hamilton Academical 1 R2 4-3 W
Tue 13 Aug 1996 Motherwell 0 Alloa Athletic 0 R2 2-4 L
Wed 14 Aug 1996 Heart Of Midlothian 1 Stenhousemuir 1 R2 5-4 W
Tue 03 Sep 1996 Dundee United 2 Dundee 2 R3 2-4 L
Sat 02 Aug 1997 Dumbarton 1 Queens Park 1 R1 6-5 W
Sat 09 Aug 1997 Motherwell 2 Inverness Caledonian Thistle 2 R2 4-1 W
Sat 01 Aug 1998 Brechin City 2 Hamilton Academical 2 R1 2-3 L
Sat 01 Aug 1998 Clyde 1 Berwick Rangers 1 R1 3-4 L
Sat 01 Aug 1998 Stranraer 1 Albion Rovers 1 R1 4-3 W
Sat 08 Aug 1998 Dundee United 2 Stirling Albion 2 R2 3-0 W
Wed 09 Sep 1998 Heart Of Midlothian 1 Ross County 1 QF 3-0 W
Sat 31 Jul 1999 East Fife 2 Stirling Albion 2 R1 8-7 W
Tue 17 Aug 1999 East Fife 2 Airdrieonians 2 R2 5-4 W
Tue 17 Aug 1999 Clyde 2 Hibernian 2 R2 4-5 L
Wed 18 Aug 1999 Raith Rovers 2 Motherwell 2 R2 4-5 L
Tue 12 Oct 1999 Aberdeen 1 Falkirk 1 R3 5-3 W
Wed 09 Aug 2000 Dumbarton 0 Ayr United 0 R1 5-4 W
Tue 05 Sep 2000 Dundee United 0 Airdrieonians 0 R3 4-3 W
Tue 11 Sep 2001 Clyde 1 Stenhousemuir 1 R1 4-2 W
Tue 25 Sep 2001 Ross County 0 Heart Of Midlothian 0 R2 5-4 W
Wed 26 Sep 2001 Inverness Caledonian Thistle 3 Partick Thistle 3 R2 4-2 W
Tue 09 Oct 2001 Dunfermline Athletic 1 Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1 R3 1-4 L
Tue 09 Oct 2001 Ayr United 0 Kilmarnock 0 R3 5-4 W
Wed 11 Sep 2002 Stirling Albion 3 Stenhousemuir 3 R1 4-2 W
Tue 24 Sep 2002 Kilmarnock 0 Airdrie United 0 R2 3-4 L
Wed 06 Nov 2002 Celtic 1 Partick Thistle 1 QF 5-4 W
Tue 23 Sep 2003 Forfar Athletic 3 Motherwell 3 R2 4-2 W
Wed 24 Sep 2003 Peterhead 2 Partick Thistle 2 R2 3-4 L
Thu 05 Feb 2004 Hibernian 1 Rangers 1 SF 4-3 W
Tue 24 Aug 2004 Albion Rovers 1 Brechin City 1 R2 4-3 W
Tue 09 Aug 2005 Brechin City 0 Partick Thistle 0 R1 1-3 L
Tue 22 Aug 2006 Ayr United 0 Dunfermline Athletic 0 R2 6-7 L
Tue 22 Aug 2006 Queens Park 0 Aberdeen 0 R2 5-3 W
Tue 07 Nov 2006 Celtic 1 Falkirk 1 QF 4-5 L
Tue 28 Aug 2007 Dundee 2 Livingston 2 R2 5-4 W
Tue 28 Aug 2007 Partick Thistle 0 St Johnstone 0 R2 5-4 W
Sun 16 Mar 2008 Rangers 2 Dundee United 2 F 3-2 W
Tue 05 Aug 2008 Dumbarton 1 Annan Athletic 1 R1 5-4 W
Tue 05 Aug 2008 Albion Rovers 0 Raith Rovers 0 R1 3-4 L
Wed 27 Aug 2008 Arbroath 2 Inverness Caledonian Thistle 2 R2 2-4 L
Wed 27 Aug 2008 Heart Of Midlothian 0 Airdrie United 0 R2 3-4 L
Wed 28 Jan 2009 Celtic 0 Dundee United 0 SF 11-10 W
Sat 01 Aug 2009 Airdrie United 0 Alloa Athletic 0 R1 3-4 L
Tue 24 Aug 2010 Brechin City 2 Dundee 2 R2 3-1 W
Wed 25 Aug 2010 Ross County 3 St Mirren 3 R2 4-3 W
Sat 30 Jul 2011 Cowdenbeath 2 Stenhousemuir 2 R1 3-4 L
Tue 20 Sep 2011 Motherwell 2 Hibernian 2 R3 6-7 L
Tue 20 Sep 2011 Aberdeen 3 East Fife 3 R3 3-4 L
Wed 21 Sep 2011 Ayr United 1 Heart Of Midlothian 1 R3 4-1 W
Tue 25 Oct 2011 Dundee United 2 Falkirk 2 QF 4-5 L
Tue 31 Jul 2012 Peterhead 0 Dundee 0 R1 1-4 L
Sat 04 Aug 2012 Arbroath 1 Stirling Albion 1 R1 3-2 W
Tue 25 Sep 2012 Stenhousemuir 1 Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1 R3 5-6 L
Tue 30 Oct 2012 Aberdeen 2 St Mirren 2 QF 2-4 L
Wed 31 Oct 2012 Dundee United 1 Heart Of Midlothian 1 QF 4-5 L
Sat 26 Jan 2013 Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1 Heart Of Midlothian 1 SF 4-5 L
Tue 27 Aug 2013 Raith Rovers 1 Heart Of Midlothian 1 R2 4-5 L
Tue 27 Aug 2013 Aberdeen 0 Alloa Athletic 0 R2 6-5 W
Wed 25 Sep 2013 Heart Of Midlothian 3 Queen of the South 3 R3 4-2 W

Aberdeen 7 2 5
Airdrie United 3 2 1
Airdrieonians 7 3 4
Albion Rovers 6 3 3
Alloa Athletic 6 3 3
Annan Athletic 1 0 1
Arbroath 3 2 1
Ayr United 5 3 2
Berwick Rangers 4 2 2
Brechin City 5 1 4
Caledonian Thistle 1 0 1
Celtic 9 5 4
Clyde 3 1 2
Clydebank[4] 2 0 2
Cowdenbeath 5 0 5
Dumbarton 5 3 2
Dundee 9 7 2
Dundee United 10 4 6
Dunfermline Athletic 6 4 2
East Fife 10 3 7
East Stirlingshire 3 3 0
Falkirk 8 5 3
Forfar Athletic 3 2 1
Hamilton Academical 4 2 2
Heart Of Midlothian 13 8 5
Hibernian 6 6 0
Inverness Caledonian Thistle 6 4 2
Kilmarnock 7 2 5
Livingston 2 1 1
Meadowbank Thistle 1 0 1
Montrose 2 1 1
Morton 4 3 1
Motherwell 7 3 4
Partick Thistle 10 4 6
Peterhead 2 0 2
Queen of the South 2 1 1
Queens Park 6 3 3
Raith Rovers 7 4 3
Rangers 5 4 1
Ross County 3 2 1
St Johnstone 3 1 2
St Mirren 5 2 3
Stenhousemuir 5 1 4
Stirling Albion 5 2 3
Stranraer 4 3 1
Jackson; James; Jackson; James; Jackson

Sat31March1928
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Re: League Cup Shoot Outs

Post by Sat31March1928 » Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:05 am

Excluding SFs and Finals

106 games 57 home wins 49 away wins
Jackson; James; Jackson; James; Jackson

Scottish
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Re: League Cup Shoot Outs

Post by Scottish » Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:10 am

I'd take the following as the same club

Airdrieonians/Airdrie United

Caledonian Thistle/Inverness CT

Meadowbank Thistle/Livingston

Reasons for this.

First one, problematic owing to buy-out of Clydebank, but same stadium, support and now reverted to original name.

Second, simply a change of name

Third change of name and location but new name was first used at old location. Same manager & playing staff.

Sat31March1928
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Re: League Cup Shoot Outs

Post by Sat31March1928 » Fri Oct 04, 2013 10:03 am

Soccerbase has

We 24Aug 1983 Cowdenbeath 1 - 0 Hearts
Instead of a 0-0 draw
and no subsequent pen shoot out on the 27th Aug

http://www.soccerbase.com/tournaments/t ... urn_id=833

Statto has the same result but does have the penalty result

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/sc ... results/r2
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Re: League Cup Shoot Outs

Post by Scottish » Fri Oct 04, 2013 5:01 pm

They're all over the shop, aren't they? Soccerbase doesn't have the group stages (which would show Hearts) & Statto has Cowdenbeath winning on penalties but Hearts winning on aggregate and going on to the group stage (even if we called them sections in those days).

You're right. They're wrong.

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Re: League Cup Shoot Outs

Post by Scottish » Fri Oct 04, 2013 5:09 pm

ScottishFA wrote:I know this might be pushing it a bit, but are home teams or away teams more likely to win a shoot-out?

I've seen home players buckle under the pressure of expectation in front of their own fans, but not sure if that is just my perception rather than reality.
Amidst the welter of stats, Davy's post of Oct 4th at 10.05 am would seem to bear out your theory. 46% of away clubs have won penalty shoot-outs. Now I don't know what percentage of away teams win over 90 or 120 minutes but it will be a lot less than that. My one caveat is that to make a like for like comparison you would have to remove draws from the equation as that option isn't available for penalty shoot-outs. Thus, for example, a club's home record over a season is (for convenience sake) P20 W10 D5 L5, it has won 50% of its home games and lost 25% but if you take out the draws it becomes P15 W10 L5 with 66.66% home wins and 33.33% defeats. So although the percentage of away wins goes up, so does the percentage of home wins and the differential between home and away also goes up.

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Re: League Cup Shoot Outs

Post by Skyline Drifter » Sat Oct 05, 2013 9:36 pm

scottish wrote:
ScottishFA wrote:I know this might be pushing it a bit, but are home teams or away teams more likely to win a shoot-out?

I've seen home players buckle under the pressure of expectation in front of their own fans, but not sure if that is just my perception rather than reality.
Amidst the welter of stats, Davy's post of Oct 4th at 10.05 am would seem to bear out your theory. 46% of away clubs have won penalty shoot-outs. Now I don't know what percentage of away teams win over 90 or 120 minutes but it will be a lot less than that. My one caveat is that to make a like for like comparison you would have to remove draws from the equation as that option isn't available for penalty shoot-outs. Thus, for example, a club's home record over a season is (for convenience sake) P20 W10 D5 L5, it has won 50% of its home games and lost 25% but if you take out the draws it becomes P15 W10 L5 with 66.66% home wins and 33.33% defeats. So although the percentage of away wins goes up, so does the percentage of home wins and the differential between home and away also goes up.
It really doesn't bear out his theory. In fact the statistics suggest his theory is wrong.

He asked if home teams or away teams are more likely to win shoot outs and implied that he thinks it's the away team. The stats show home teams win 54% of the time apparently. Whilst the outcome is, to no great surprise, close, it completely does not bear out his theory. It suggests his theory is wrong. 54 v 46 = home club more likely to win.

I know what you are saying, you're suggesting an away team is more likely to win a shoot out than it is to win a normal away game. Hardly a surprising conclusion as you'd expect shoot outs to be close to 50/50 whilst there has always been an established advantage to playing at home and I would imagine their history shows most clubs to have a better win percentage in home games than they do away from home. However, that's not the bare theory Andy put forward.

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Re: League Cup Shoot Outs

Post by Scottish » Sat Oct 05, 2013 11:01 pm

I made a different assumption to you - namely, whether or not an away side was more likely to win than would otherwise have been the case. I'm no mathematician but I would hazard a guess that 54-46 is a significant increase to the benefit of the away team than in matches with the draw stripped out.

I don't quite know why you say that it's "hardly surprising" that away teams do better in penalties because in regular games "there has always been an established advantage to playing at home." What is the disadvantage in penalties for home teams compared to regular games which makes shoot-outs more likely to be 50-50? Both teams are level at kick-off/penalties. The home team has (usually) the larger support. The pitch is the same. The home players are better acquainted with it. The only major difference is the time factor and how significant that is, I'll leave to those who are genuinely mathematicians.

Of course there are also anomalies that could render ANY statistical survey meaningless. Hibs have won all seven they have played. East Fife lost seven in succession in seven seasons, including four times at home. In six home games, Kilmarnock have lost five times and three of those have been to lower division sides.

Then there are the vagaries of cup draws. Would you bet against a big team with international players against part-time opponents, either at home, away or a neutral venue? Would anyone have genuinely believed Raith Rovers v Celtic in the League Cup Final was 50-50. Or did Celtic - and Paul McStay in particular- buckle under the pressure? Not a home game, I hear you say. But a Glasgow team at a Glasgow ground against lower division opponents will always be overwhelming favourites. At kick-off, at the start of the second half, at the end of 90 minutes and at the end of extra time. They will be the favourites right up until the moment they have lost.

Or Stenhousemuir v Dundee United in the Challenge Cup? Had this match been played in the era of instant online betting how many last shirts would have been laid on the Ochilview side?

Now, you might struggle to find a price worth taking on England losing a match on penalties but on David Beckham missing three in a row with two of them blootered over the bar? Or John Terry landing flat on his arse (not, I'll grant you, the most distressing sight in sport) when faced with a kick to win the Champions League?

Or, perhaps the most unusual example of all, earlier this year in the Confederations Cup. With Gigi Buffon in one goal and Iker Casillas in the other what odds that neither would make a save in fourteen penalties and that they would be beaten thirteen times in succession?

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